Group results
63%
45 of 72 results right.
FIFA World Cup 2026 - OddsFox Simulation
Simulation scorecard
How the simulation is doing
102 of 104 results are in
Updated Jul 18, 2026
Probability quality
21% better
than giving every outcome equal odds.
Knockout path
50/62
team places right across completed rounds.
Champion pick
Spain
Actual winner pending.
How scoring works & data sources
Group result accuracy is how often the simulation's most likely home win, draw, or away win happened. Probability quality compares its Brier score of 0.527 with 0.667 from giving all three outcomes equal odds. Its log loss is 0.880, compared with an equal-odds baseline of 1.099. Lower is better for both scores.
Technical formulas: Brier = mean((pH−yH)² + (pD−yD)² + (pA−yA)²). Log loss = mean(−ln(max(probability assigned to the actual result, 1e−15))).
Knockout round detail
- Round of 32
- 26/32
- Round of 16
- 13/16
- Quarterfinals
- 5/8
- Semi-final
- 4/4
- Finalists
- 2/2
Knockout rows describe one simulated bracket path. Stage totals compare predicted and actual participants. A path-diverged matchup is not counted as an incorrect probability forecast. On the 10 completed knockout matchups that occurred exactly as simulated, OddsFox picked 7 winners correctly; this conditional count is selection-biased and is not a headline metric.
Fixtures are matched by canonical team pair and stage rather than date. Source aliases are normalized, and tied knockout games use the separately published shootout winner.
Actual results: results.csv and shootouts.csv, published under CC0.
- Results revision
- 80f408d2c93ba4f9e06a2c7cdc5effb05fea9680
- Results snapshot SHA-256
- 899de77a368de07b1bc5465b83da2e6dc9a47ab6a7333f687eb1805eb6ea6a15
- Shootouts snapshot SHA-256
- e5fe7f4026ef267258c592b39e59c479f6f5521fabaaf18b0c17a28fbfa823a0
- Snapshot updated
- 2026-07-18T09:51:10.022Z
- Simulation commit
- 25cb18e712321f56f1868a23e8c5d83cc2dcd70e
- Simulation SHA-256
- 5ec07f82924bf882630e576ee11524daf6fbb113878c8daad85aab2542d65811
Timestamp verification
The forecast CSV is pinned to commit 25cb18e from Jun 11, 2026, before the opening match. The same CSV bytes were independently timestamped by FreeTSA (freetsa.org) via RFC 3161 on Jul 18, 2026, 05:29:42 PM UTC, before the Final. A successful OpenSSL verify proves these exact forecast bytes existed no later than that timestamp; git dates alone are not treated as public proof.
Download frozen CSV, timestamp token, and TSA certificate.
openssl ts -verify -data wc2026_match_outcomes.csv -in wc2026_match_outcomes.csv.tsr -CAfile freetsa-cacert.pem
- RFC 3161 timestamp
- 2026-07-18T17:29:42Z
- TSA
- FreeTSA (freetsa.org)
Stages 1–5 of 6 · Knockout stage
Final back to the Round of 32
% = simulated probability that the highlighted team advances from that match.
R32
Round of 32
R16
Round of 16
QF
Quarter-finals
SF
Semi-final
Final
Predicted champion
Spain
Actual champion
Pending
Third place
SF
Semi-final
QF
Quarter-finals
R16
Round of 16
R32
Round of 32
Stage 1 of 6 — Final & podium
Final
Winner takes the trophy
Predicted champion
Spain
Actual champion
Pending
Third place
Stage 2 of 6
Semi-final
2 matches
Stage 3 of 6
Quarter-finals
4 matches
Stage 4 of 6
Round of 16
8 matches
Stage 5 of 6
Round of 32
16 matches
Stage 6 of 6 · Group stage
Groups A–L
Group winners, runners-up and the eight best third-placed teams advance to the Round of 32.
Group A
Mexico City · Guadalajara · Atlanta · Monterrey
Mexico
1stMEX
South Korea
2ndKOR
Czechia
3rdCZE
South Africa
RSA
Fixtures (6)
Probabilities: H home · D draw · A away
- MEXRSACorrect
- KORCZECorrect
- CZERSAIncorrect
- MEXKORCorrect
- CZEMEXCorrect
- RSAKORIncorrect
Group B
Toronto · Santa Clara · Los Angeles · Vancouver · Seattle
Switzerland
1stSUI
Canada
2ndCAN
Bosnia
3rdBIH
Qatar
QAT
Fixtures (6)
Probabilities: H home · D draw · A away
- CANBIHIncorrect
- QATSUIIncorrect
- SUIBIHCorrect
- CANQATCorrect
- SUICANCorrect
- BIHQATCorrect
Group C
New York / New Jersey · Boston · Philadelphia · Miami · Atlanta
Brazil
1stBRA
Morocco
2ndMAR
Scotland
3rdSCO
Haiti
HAI
Fixtures (6)
Probabilities: H home · D draw · A away
- HAISCOCorrect
- BRAMARIncorrect
- BRAHAICorrect
- SCOMARCorrect
- SCOBRACorrect
- MARHAICorrect
Group D
Los Angeles · Vancouver · Santa Clara · Seattle
Türkiye
1stTUR
United States
2ndUSA
Paraguay
3rdPAR
Australia
AUS
Fixtures (6)
Probabilities: H home · D draw · A away
- USAPARCorrect
- AUSTURIncorrect
- TURPARIncorrect
- USAAUSCorrect
- TURUSACorrect
- PARAUSIncorrect
Group E
Houston · Philadelphia · Toronto · Kansas City · New York / New Jersey
Germany
1stGER
Ecuador
2ndECU
Ivory Coast
3rdCIV
Curaçao
CUW
Fixtures (6)
Probabilities: H home · D draw · A away
- CIVECUIncorrect
- GERCUWCorrect
- GERCIVCorrect
- ECUCUWIncorrect
- CUWCIVCorrect
- ECUGERIncorrect
Group F
Dallas · Monterrey · Houston · Kansas City
Netherlands
1stNED
Japan
2ndJPN
Sweden
3rdSWE
Tunisia
TUN
Fixtures (6)
Probabilities: H home · D draw · A away
- NEDJPNIncorrect
- SWETUNCorrect
- NEDSWECorrect
- TUNJPNCorrect
- JPNSWEIncorrect
- TUNNEDCorrect
Group G
Seattle · Los Angeles · Vancouver
Belgium
1stBEL
Iran
2ndIRN
Egypt
3rdEGY
New Zealand
NZL
Fixtures (6)
Probabilities: H home · D draw · A away
- IRNNZLIncorrect
- BELEGYIncorrect
- BELIRNIncorrect
- NZLEGYCorrect
- EGYIRNIncorrect
- NZLBELCorrect
Group H
Atlanta · Miami · Houston · Guadalajara
Spain
1stESP
Uruguay
2ndURU
Saudi Arabia
KSA
Cape Verde
CPV
Fixtures (6)
Probabilities: H home · D draw · A away
- KSAURUIncorrect
- ESPCPVIncorrect
- URUCPVIncorrect
- ESPKSACorrect
- CPVKSAIncorrect
- URUESPCorrect
Group I
New York / New Jersey · Boston · Philadelphia · Toronto
France
1stFRA
Norway
2ndNOR
Senegal
3rdSEN
Iraq
IRQ
Fixtures (6)
Probabilities: H home · D draw · A away
- FRASENCorrect
- IRQNORCorrect
- NORSENCorrect
- FRAIRQCorrect
- NORFRACorrect
- SENIRQCorrect
Group J
Kansas City · Santa Clara · Dallas
Argentina
1stARG
Austria
2ndAUT
Algeria
ALG
Jordan
JOR
Fixtures (6)
Probabilities: H home · D draw · A away
- ARGALGCorrect
- AUTJORCorrect
- ARGAUTCorrect
- JORALGCorrect
- ALGAUTIncorrect
- JORARGCorrect
Group K
Houston · Mexico City · Guadalajara · Miami · Atlanta
Portugal
1stPOR
Colombia
2ndCOL
Uzbekistan
UZB
DR Congo
COD
Fixtures (6)
Probabilities: H home · D draw · A away
- PORCODIncorrect
- UZBCOLCorrect
- PORUZBCorrect
- COLCODCorrect
- COLPORIncorrect
- CODUZBIncorrect
Group L
Dallas · Toronto · Boston · New York / New Jersey · Philadelphia
England
1stENG
Croatia
2ndCRO
Panama
PAN
Ghana
GHA
Fixtures (6)
Probabilities: H home · D draw · A away
- GHAPANIncorrect
- ENGCROCorrect
- ENGGHAIncorrect
- PANCROCorrect
- PANENGCorrect
- CROGHACorrect